I recently did an analysis on forecasting snowfall for the winter 2023-2024 season in the Northeast US. Data was extracted for snowfall totals by day for the Phildaphia,PA area and Norfolk, Va area with records dating back to the 1800s. I highlighted areas of snowfall totals above average and looked at the ENSO climate pattern as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) from those time periods. I then compared it to the current conditions.
The current climate pattern consists of a strong El Nino and a strong positive PDO. The only other year found to have close climate patterns to what current conditions are, was December 2009. In that time, a Noreaster that developed over the Gulf of Mexico traveled up the East Coast and battered the Northern Virginia area, Philadelphia, New Jersey and several states in between with 20+inches of snow.
With these results, I believe this year will result in at least one Noreaster that will have an impact on the East Coast. The jet stream pattern of typical El Nino shows comparable signal of higher than average temperatures for the area in December and higher amounts of precipitation. This data suggests that a storm may not occur in the same month as 2009, however once I analyze the temperature patterns for similar years I believe the climate pattern will support a severe winter weather storm later on in the year, perhaps into 2024.
I plan to continue to analyze the data and monitor month by month and compare through the winter with current conditions, and those of past similar years. I also don't expect this analysis to result in the exact forecast I predicted. More info to come! Stay tuned!
Sherri
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