Brace for Impact: Wednesday’s Snowstorm and What It Means for Hampton Roads

 Winter Storm Potential: What to Expect This Wednesday

Here we go again! It feels like just yesterday we were dealing with rain every weekend during the spring and summer. Now, it's snow every Wednesday!

As we look ahead to the coming storm, it’s clear that predicting its exact impact is no easy task. We're currently 76 hours out from the event, and although the GFS and ECMWF weather models agree on the general track of the low-pressure system, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how strong it will be.

The Strength of the Storm Matters

Why does this matter? The strength of the surface low directly affects the amount of precipitation. A stronger storm system can bring more snow, sleet, or ice. The key factors that will shape how much and how long the precipitation lasts are the storm’s track, speed, and strength. If the low-pressure system tracks further south, it will increase the chances of snow and ice in the colder, northwest quadrant.

When and Where Will the Low Form?

The models are predicting that the low will form overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday morning (around midnight), just south of Mississippi and Alabama. If the storm follows the model’s predicted track, strength, and speed, we can expect more accurate forecasts for snowfall amounts. However, I’m not going to discuss specific snow totals just yet because they will likely fluctuate as we get closer to the event.

One thing is certain: the air will be cold enough for snow. The critical factors now are the exact track, speed, and strength of the storm. I’ll be monitoring the weather models over the next few days to see if they stay consistent and confirm the location where the low will form.

What the Models Are Showing

I’ve been analyzing the latest 06z model runs for both the GFS and ECMWF, as these are the best models for tracking storms 72 hours and further out. In the coming 48 to 24 hours, I’ll start comparing short-term models for more specific predictions. Below, I’ve included model animations and comparison tools so you can get a better idea of how the storm’s track is being predicted.

Be Prepared for Weather Disruptions

As always, be prepared for school closures and potential commuting impacts. While the models are becoming more consistent, the storm's exact track and intensity could still change slightly as we get closer. Keep an eye on your local weather stations for updates in the coming days.

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more weather updates!