Hampton Roads Snow Potential: What to Expect on February 11th

 

Winter’s Not Finished Yet: What to Expect for Hampton Roads on February 11th

Winter has more tricks up its sleeve, and its aiming for Hampton Roads! There’s been quite a bit of buzz about potential snow in the forecast for Tuesday, February 11th, so let's break it down and see what we’re really looking at.

Uncertainty in the Forecast

Although we’re close to the day of the event, uncertainty remains high due to the temperature gradient. Down to our south, things are warmer, but the winds are arriving from the north, bringing a bit of cold air with them. The biggest challenge for forecasters is pinpointing the exact line where temperatures hover at or just below freezing, which determines if we'll get snow or just plain rain.

Coastal Forecasting Challenges

Forecasting along the coast comes with its own set of difficulties. The warmer ocean temperatures and sea breezes can play a huge role in moderating the cold air from the north. When these factors clash with the winds from the west, they create a tricky situation for determining whether that precipitation will fall as snow or rain.

What the Models Are Saying

The models aren't in perfect agreement, but here’s what we can gather from the data.

·         The 06z GFS model runs show temperatures above freezing, but still predict snow. This suggests a mixed bag of rain and snow, though accumulation is likely to be minimal (if any). We’re talking about a trace of snow or less in most areas.

·         The 00z ECMWF model runs also show warmer-than-ideal temperatures for snow, leaning more toward rain than snow. In fact, the soundings from the GFS—essentially a snapshot of atmospheric conditions at various levels—suggest that rain is the most probable form of precipitation.

In short, we’re likely to see a mix of snow and rain, but little to no accumulation. The main concern could be some icy patches if temperatures hover near freezing, so keep that in mind when you head out.

Looking Ahead: Beyond February 11th

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the month, we can expect above-average temperatures in Hampton Roads. However, there might be more precipitation than usual. Fingers crossed we get a break from the winter weather soon—many of us are ready to say goodbye to snow and ice for a while!

Final Thoughts

While it’s always fun to track a winter storm, it seems like we’re in for more of a nuisance than a full-blown snow event on February 11th. Stay safe, keep an eye on the forecast, and be ready for a potentially slick morning commute.

Check out the weather models and soundings below for a deeper dive into the forecast data.

Thanks for reading!