Forecast for Sunday December 10th

 Forecast for Sunday December 10th in Virginia

  Visiting the NAM model guidance for the upcoming weekend, it's still a bit too short range.  Observing the GFS and ECMWF longer range for the upcoming weather pattern showed the trough digging deep down into Texas with cold air aloft interacting with the Gulf stream warmer temps.  This will develop a Surface Low, shifting across the states from West to East as the jet stream carries it along.

  The impact for the Virginia region is the warm side, resulting in a squall line type of rain, high wind and possible storms for Sunday night into Monday morning.  The models will continue to hone in on the timing and where the front will have the most impact when it is within the short range models.

  The temperatures drop Monday night as the cold dry air settles in.  Expect low temperatures to remain in the 30s throughout the week, with highs back to average 50s.  It is getting close to the time of year when the jet stream for the El Nino pattern settles into the south, and typical winter temperatures should remain more consistent the rest of the season for Virginia.

  I am keeping an eye on the winter season outlooks, where there is potential for even lower temperatures in January.  Time will tell if we see snow this year, after the long 3-year stretch of La Nina, which kept the snow out of the area.

Stay tuned for more forecast updates!  Thanks for reading!

surface low developing East of Texas

GFS model temps Monday night

Weather Prediction Center Day 3 outlook