Tropical Storm Debby

 Potential for Tropical Storm Debby to impact Hampton Roads 

  The first potential tropical storm to impact our area is brewing off the Florida coast.  It is expected to develop into a Hurricane before landfall, however once it reaches land it will be likely downgraded to a tropical storm.  The weather models are still in a bit of disagreement with how long it may linger at the Florida/Georgia border, however what we know now is that it will bring flooding rainfall.

  The risk associated with the Tropical Storm slowing down at the border will include storm surge as it makes landfall, and tropical rainfall amounts are astronomical when measured by weather models.  The amount of moisture and the storm spinning over an area for a longer period of time results in rainfall amounts equal to the area's entire years' worth of rain.  There will be strong winds as well, but the water and flooding potential will be the biggest threat.

  As far as impacting the Hampton Roads area, it is still a bit early to tell exactly what Tropical Storm Debby will do, however I can at least give information off the knowledge we have now.  Depending on how long it takes the storm to move up the coast, it may reach the North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia coastline by Friday into Saturday.  Since this area has already had above normal precipitation accumulation this season, the biggest risk associated with any tropical system moving into the area is flooding.

 The Hampton Roads area is at a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the later part of the week, Wednesday/Thursday and into Friday.  This may be elevated once Tropical Storm Debby moves up the coast.  Even if the storm is remnants by the time it arrives, it will still drop tropical amounts of rain in the area.

 To prepare now for tropical storms affecting the region, have a plan in place for the need to evacuate if necessary, inventory your emergency kits now, and prepare for power outages with high temperatures.  Do not drive through flooded roadways or around barriers.  Monitor your local weather forecasts these coming days, as the forecast could shift and alter plans if needed.

  Below are latest images of weather models, Hurricane center imagery, ensemble means forecasts and resources.

  I will continue to monitor the storm throughout the week and post an update if necessary.  Thanks for reading!

 

Ensemble mean forecast ECMWF.  Each line represents a model scenario of the storm track.  The more lines in one spot, the more agreeance the ensemble has on location.  Do not use this image as a final determination of storm track, there is potential for adjustments.

Tropical Storm Debby at 26.3°N - 84.2°W - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page (noaa.gov)

Tropical Tidbits

National Hurricane Center (noaa.gov)

Build A Kit | Ready.gov

Tropical Page (weather.gov)

Know Your Zone | VDEM (vaemergency.gov)

The Heat is On!

 Continued excessive heat for Northeast into July

  It certainly is a scorcher out there!  Be sure to monitor your water intake if you have to be out in the heat and use cooling centers should you have no access to A/C!  Check on your family members that you know have health ailments and may be exposed to the heat.

  I was looking over the Climate Prediction Center drought monitoring outlook and excessive heat.  We get a little bit of relief on Monday night into Tuesday, where hopefully there is a slightly higher chance of rain/thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, the high temps do remain in the 90s for the week.

 This afternoon/evening there is an isolated chance of rain, but it will likely remain dry.  There is a risk for rapid onset drought due to little ground moisture, the high temperatures, little to no rain fallen in the Hampton Roads area, and high rates of the ground moisture being evaporated due to the high temperatures.  In other words, keep watering those plants and your lawn!

  For late June/early July there is a set up for more excessive heat risk and the onset drought.  Please continue to limit your exposure to the heat and look out for others!

  I have been monitoring the Hurricane Center updates as well, and other than Alberto come and gone impacting Texas, some minor disturbance by Florida that will drop tropical amounts of rain will be occurring.  For long term coast monitoring, there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that will move west toward the U.S., but it will have to continue to be watched if it ends up developing.

  Please see images and links below for more reading up on the upcoming heat, and any hurricane monitoring.

Probabilistic Hazards Outlook (noaa.gov)

Tropical Tidbits

Climate Prediction Center (noaa.gov)

  Thanks for reading!

Memorial Day Storms!

 Severe Weather Memorial Day Hampton Roads

 Hello everyone!  I know I haven't posted much, the plains have been lighting up with tornadoes and all types of severe weather, so I have mostly been keeping tabs on that.  Wishing best recovery efforts for those affected.

  I am watching the severe weather threat move through Missouri tonight, and it will then make its way east to our area, bringing the potential for severe weather on Memorial Day.  The main threat is high wind gusts and hail.  While there will be some pop-up storms that move through the area tonight like it has today, tomorrow is looking to be more widespread.

  The Storm Prediction Center has a slight chance for severe weather for the entirety of the east coast, mostly in the afternoon.  The 18z run of the HRRR (convective allowing model) shows a batch of rain/storms moving through around 9am, then another around 2pm and the final batch at 8pm.  While these times are not exact, and the models may shift and change the outcome, it is important to keep your eyes on the skies during any festivities tomorrow.  It will very easily go from blue skies, to towering cumulus and thunder.  When you hear thunder, don't take the risk.  Lightning is close enough to pose a risk if you can hear thunder, and strikes are sometimes miles away from storms.

This threat includes a 15% chance for high wind and hail, and a 5% chance of a tornado.  This means that there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 25 miles from any point within this shaded area.  The Virginia Beach tornado last year occurred on a 5% risk day, so while these numbers seem small, it actually covers a large area, and the risk is still there.

Winds on the water won't be that great either, and when these move through it will pick up out of the south and shift, so don't be caught out on the water tomorrow!  This news doesn't have to completely shut down any plans, but just stay aware as the day progresses. Have a great Memorial Day!  Stay tuned for more weather updates.  Thanks for reading!

 Useful links:

COD: Forecast Models

Storm Prediction Center May 26, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)

Temperature Analysis and Dubai

 Temperature Analysis for Hampton Roads and a little bit about the rain in Dubai

  Decided to do a little temperature analysis for the Hampton Roads area so far this spring season.  I really love these historical data sets the weather stations have available, as it shows the normal range temperature, the record highs and lows, and the observed temps.  This is a great analysis tool to see where we are this season in terms of normal.

  Temperatures are an important element to look over, because the warmer it is, the more instability the atmosphere holds.  This isn’t a tell-tale sign of how the summer will go, however it gives a pretty good idea that what we’ve experienced so far this season is not normal.  There were 51 days total in the observed period from March 1 to today, April 21.  32 of those days had highs above average, and one even broke the record, reaching 90 degrees April 15th.  The remaining 19 days high temperatures were within average.  The average temperature range varies as the interactive chart is used (link below), but it is 50 to 70 degrees for April 15th for example. The low temperature on that day was within the average range, but it was 63 degrees in the morning, which is quite warm before the sun even rises.  The most interesting fact is there have been 0 days of high temperatures below normal, and the staggering number of days with highs above normal.  Yes, it is getting warmer.

  The weather in the Mid-Atlantic region is difficult to forecast.  The systems move from west to east, and they have to cross over the Western-Virginia mountains on their way.  Further east (Hampton Roads), there are peninsulas.  (As if all the bridges we commute over didn’t tell us that!)  The peninsulas make the storms and weather systems have to travel over bodies of water, and the water temperature is different than the land temperature, especially this time of year.  Storms that may seem strong starting off in the west may weaken as they move over the mountain range and meet the change in temperature over the water.

  All of this makes it that much more interesting to continue to study all of the factors that play into what the atmosphere decides to do.  We will continue to monitor as the season progresses and see if the temperatures now are giving us a sign of what’s to come for the summer.

 

  Changing the topic a bit, a coworker asked about all the rain Dubai and the UAE was getting and if there was anything on why that may have occurred.  This is a desert region, so it definitely is not normal for the area to get a year’s worth of rain in two days.  Unfortunately, this caused flooding and destruction where it isn’t built for that much rain.  Since Dubai is a built-up city, it is at risk for urban flooding.

  I also found it interesting (and learned) that the country has been cloud seeding (modifying the weather) for years.  The first few articles I pulled up stated experts said the heavy amounts of rain were not a result of the cloud seeding.  The process is this:  When a convective cloud is already in the area, a small amount of water producing products are “injected” into the cloud.  This is an immediate result in larger amounts of rain that the area needs, but not a torrential downpour leading to flooding.  From what I learned so far, moisture in the atmosphere has to go somewhere.  Whether it is being placed into the cloud or not, the water molecules are so small I wouldn’t doubt it does have long term affects overall on the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.  Perhaps the cloud seeding has resulted in the area having the ability to produce more moisture in the clouds, and not just when the cloud seeding is occurring.  The teleconnections for the area could also influence the weather, but I am not as familiar with how the sea surface temperatures and other climate processes interact there, so I will be doing a bit more research for that.

Thanks for reading, more to come!  Here are some links from the research:

 Climate (weather.gov)

Atmosphere | Free Full-Text | The UAE Cloud Seeding Program: A Statistical and Physical Evaluation (mdpi.com)

Safety Concerns and Consequences of Cloud Seeding Implications—A Systematic Review | SpringerLink

Earthquake in NJ - Let's talk about it !

 Earthquake in NJ April 5th, 2024

  While several news reports and scientists are covering this phenomenon, I wanted to take a bit of time for research myself and learn more about this event.  I am originally from NJ, and visit there often, but I missed this!

  My family in South Jersey several miles away from the epicenter felt the quake, and it was an interesting experience for sure.  Thankfully no injuries have been reported.  This earthquake occurred at an ancient fault called the Ramapo Fault.  It is a very complicated system of fault lines with two or three other fault lines essentially running off the main Ramapo fault, similar to what a water tributary system looks like.

  This main earthquake that occurred yesterday was only 2 miles deep, making the waves from the epicenter easier to travel to the surface.  The aftershocks that have occurred are deeper (5 miles, 6 miles), and only felt in the vicinity.

  Earthquakes do occur here, just not very often.  It is considered an inactive fault, however, has the potential to activate at any time.  I see some news articles posting dramatic numbers, so just be wary of what you're reading.  And no, the upcoming Solar Eclipse has no impact on earthquakes and other geological processes.

  To get into the science a bit behind the earthquake, they occur when the Earth's crust slips, along a fault or tectonic plate (they are related, but not the same thing).  This could occur vertically or horizontally or fold up over each other, which creates mountains and volcanoes.  There are mountains in this region of the East Coast, so it makes sense there were historical geological processes that occurred.  This particular slip yesterday was an oblique reverse and strike slip.  The oblique reverse describes the vertical and horizontal movement along a fault line, and the portion of rock that lies above the fault plane moved upward.  The strike slip refers to horizontal movement of the crust past one another.  So, this earthquake involved a lot of moving parts (pun intended).

  To get a better picture of what the Earth's crust did at the fault line, imagine an Oreo cookie.  You split the top portion of the cookie in half to create the fault.  Then slide the left or right side of the cookie into the other side (using the cream as a surface), one side of the cookie will go over top the other.  Then move the cracked part of the cookie in a vertical motion up and down.   This is a demonstration of what happened that caused the earthquake.  Next there were waves that traveled upward from the fault line to the surface. You can demonstrate these waves with a slinky, holding one end and moving it vertically or horizontally while the other end is on the ground.  You will see a wave-like motion in the slinky.

  There have been several aftershocks since the main quake yesterday, and the USGS expects more throughout the week.  The ancient fault lines are in a readjustment phase, causing the aftershocks. This is very interesting to read about and research geological processes, I plan on continuing to look more into whatever further research results from this event.  

  As far as weather, the big event upcoming Monday is the Solar eclipse.  There are several cloud forecasts being released but honestly, I do not want to focus on something that is so unpredictable.  During no other weather event are meteorologists looking at the cloud forecast, because it is so difficult to forecast and get correct.  I also enjoy astronomy, and I know that cloud forecasts occur, then it ends up clearing in time to have a nice view of a celestial event.  I have my solar eclipse viewing glasses ready.  Virginia is not going to be in the path of totality, but it will still be a neat sight at the percent we will get.  Hopefully it remains clear, but if it doesn't, I say try anyway because I have seen people get images of an eclipse through clouds.

  Stay safe everyone, thanks for reading!  Here are some helpful links to stay on top of the earthquakes and where I looked for my research.

Latest Earthquakes (usgs.gov)

M 4.8 - 2024 Whitehouse Station, New Jersey Earthquake (usgs.gov)

Attitude, movement history, and structure of cataclastic rocks of the Flemington Fault results of core drilling near Oldwick, New Jersey (usgs.gov)

Meteorological Spring!

 Welcome to Meteorological Spring!  

  Why do meteorologists and weather nerds get so excited for this day?  Because it means the more interesting weather is on its way, warmer temperatures and spring is in the air!

  This generally is the start of the storm chase season, so expect to see more reports of incoming storms or severe weather for this upcoming season.

  I wanted to take some time to go over my analysis for the winter, I believe it is important to always look back on past forecasts, and see what was wrong, what was right and learn how to forecast better overall.

  My forecast included higher than average December temperatures for the East Coast and Virginia, and it turns out that was accurate, also applying to the entire United States. Below is a graphic from the National Centers for Environmental Information that backs this up, and the link for those who would like to read in more detail.  December 2023 National Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

  I also discussed at least one Nor'easter impacting the area, and that also held true however, it didn't result in snow for Hampton Roads.  There was a trace amount of snow recorded in the winter season, which is below average.  The graphic below from NWS Wakefield Office does a great job of detailing what happened this winter:

  As the El Nino pattern persisted through the winter, we did have an above average season of precipitation, mostly being rain.  Looking over the larger weather connections and climate patterns are a big part of having an accurate forecast, and it's my favorite part of forecasting.

 

 We are projected to begin a Neutral/La Nina pattern shift coming up here shortly, which means the jet stream will start drifting farther north and support severe weather in the southeast.  I will be looking into summer season analysis as well as Hurricanes when we get a little further into Spring.

  For the Hampton Roads area tonight, expect rain through the night and some showers tomorrow with high temperatures in the 60s.  Partly cloudy the rest of the week with highs in the 50s and a higher chance for rain on Wednesday.  It's a pretty tell-tale sign when the temperature rises even just a few degrees, there will be rain.

Stay tuned!  I'm glad I can share my weather forecasts and hopefully it helps everyone be a little more aware of what they're stepping outside to!

 Thanks for reading

   Sherri

Wintry mixture for Friday Morning Jan 19th Hampton Roads

 Forecast for Friday Jan 19th Hampton Roads

  Hello again everyone!  This system moving through tomorrow may be the last chance for any wintry precipitation this month.  Expect some sleet/ice/rain mixed in tomorrow morning around 6am, be careful on that commute!

  The temperatures are struggling to remain freezing or below when the precipitation moves into the area.  The last couple days have been a real cold snap, but the storm systems that have been moving through are continuing to bring the warmer southern air and ocean temperatures with it, remaining too warm for any snow to accumulate.

  Although the temperatures aloft are very cold, as the Arctic air from up north circulates south with the El Nino pattern, the surface remains above freezing in the peninsula areas because the water surrounding it takes longer to cool off, leaving the temperatures too warm during the day to allow the ground to stay frozen for snow to accumulate.

  Next week the temperatures rise into way above average, highs in the 50s and 60s.  This is why most likely, the next chance for snow will be next month.  Still have a long way to go this winter!  If we have a later freeze then it may even last into March!

Stay tuned for more weather updates, stay dry and take it easy on the roads!

Thanks for reading.