Winter outlook 2024-2025 Season in Mid Atlantic

 Winter weather outlook

  Hello everyone!  I wanted to take some time to share my winter weather analysis for the upcoming 2024-2025 season.  I read over the Climate Prediction Center's outlook and I agree with their analysis, so I will share that article here:

U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer and drier South, wetter North | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Since I had previously extracted snowfall data for previous years in Norfolk Virginia, I utilized that data again and looked over what our climate pattern looks like now and is forecast to be in the winter months ahead.  Currently, there is a slowly developing La Nina, and it most likely will be weak when it does emerge.  We will not have a full reading on the development of La Nina until the end of November, however it is forecast to develop.  What this means is the jet stream pattern will favor severe weather in the southeast, more moisture in the northwest, and above average temperatures for the far southeast into mid atlantic, and below average precipitation in the midwest.

  I also analyzed the Pacific/North American climate pattern or PNA.  Currently we are in a positive PNA, which is associated with above average temperatures in the west, and below average in the southeast.  The positive phase of PNA tends to be associated with El Nino while negative phases tend to be associated with La Nina.  Now these teleconnections have opposite effects on the United States, however they all play a role into the data analysis.

  The other winter months that had similar climate patterns to what we are currently experiencing include 2017, 1984 and 1974.  This was late developing La Nina from moderately strong to moderate.  2017 and 1984 recorded no snowfall events for the Norfolk VA area.  1974 had a record of 7.5 inches fall in March, and there was a negative PNA.  This tells us in 1974 there was an association with La Nina and the PNA.  In 2024-2025 we very well could develop a negative PNA.  What this tells me is, it seems that finding a direct correlation between snowfall occurring or not occurring and the climate patterns is not easy, and there may not be one at all.  However, the pattern in 1974 shows a "movement to the right" if you will of a late snowfall in March.  So, it's possible we remain above average temperatures through December, the cold pattern doesn't arrive until February, and we remain below average temperatures most of February and into March.  We will see if it results in snowfall late in the season or not.

  My winter outlook for the 2024-2025 season includes above average temperatures for most of the winter, a pattern shift from this current high pressure dry air over the mid atlantic, to an average/above average Dec-Feb-Mar precipitation pattern, with mostly rain as the temperatures remain above average.  When it does cool down later in the season, there is a chance for storms to impact the area that could result in snowfall, but I do not think the pattern is conducive for a large impact storm or snowfall amount.

You can read more about the PNA and other teleconnections here:

Climate Prediction Center - Pacific/North American (PNA)

The 2023-2024 seasonal outlook from the CPC is here, in case you would like to read up on how accurate their last season outlook was:

2023-24 U.S. winter outlook: wetter South, warmer North | NOAA Climate.gov

  You can read up on last season's results and my predictions in my earlier blogposts, from March 2024 and December 2023.

  Thanks for reading!

          Sherri

  

A Look at the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

 

  Can the ENSO data be used to determine/forecast the Atlantic hurricane season intensity?  The answer is yes and no.  There are many factors leading up to an active hurricane season, and the ENSO analysis helps determine the strength of the sea surface temperature anomalies during the season.

  Comparing the 2005, 2020, 2021 and 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons helped paint a better picture as to how different these ENSO analyses were.  To recap, an El Nino seasonal pattern means the Atlantic is experiencing warmer than average ocean temperature anomalies in the measured regions.  These are measured in 3 month increments.  The La Nina indicates below average sea surface temperature anomalies in the measured zones.  Not every historic hurricane season in the Atlantic is associated with a warmer than average SST.  There is actually more proof that the hurricane season is more active during a neutral ENSO phase or transition to El Nino or La Nina.  Not one is favored to have a more severe hurricane season than the other.  The only data set that shows more intense/active hurricanes in the Atlantic is the neutral phase.  Which proves that during NORMAL SSTs, the Atlantic hurricane season is more active.

 

In 2005, the Atlantic Hurricane season reached a historic record with tropical systems running into January 2006.  The winter season of 2005 started off with a low end El Nino, transitioned to a neutral phase into spring and summer, then a low end La Nina by the end of the year/beginning of 2006.  The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had a total of 28 named storms, including 2 major hurricanes in July, 1 major in August, 2 in September and 2 in October.  This season included Katrina, Dennis, Maria, Wilma (record breaking pressure readings), Rita, and the infamous Greek alphabet names due to reaching the limit on the English alphabet names.

 

In 2020, there was a record breaking 30 named Atlantic Hurricanes, including a major in August, September, and 4 majors in October, already using the Greek alphabet by then.  This season included Laura, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta and Iota.  This season kicked off early in May and ran until almost Thanksgiving with the last tropical systems being named a week before.  The climatological analysis of 2020 starts the year off in neutral phase, transitions to weak La Nina in late summer, and then began the 3 year long La Nina streak.

 

In 2021, there were 21 named Atlantic Hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes in August (Grace and Ida), Larry the major hurricane going into September, as well as Sam.  The season again started with tropical development in May and ended in the first week of November.  The 2020 ENSO is mentioned above, and the rest of 2021 was in La Nina.  This is COOLER than average SSTs.  This hurricane season was toned down a bit compared to 2005 and 2020 however 21 named storms is still a high number.

 

For 2024 season so far, we have had 13 named Atlantic storms, including 1 major in June, 3 hurricanes in August/Sept, 2 major hurricanes in Sept, and 1 major hurricane in October.  Now the Atlantic Hurricane season isn’t over until November 30th, but as history shows us, this does not mean the tropics will no longer be active.  For this year’s ENSO analysis, we were finishing out 2023 from the long La Nina period, transitioned into neutral in winter/spring of 2023, then began El Nino in the summer, and now currently in a neutral phase with La Nina projected to begin this winter.

 

According to this data, there is no direct correlation between an El Nino/La Nina season and the strength/activity of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Yes, the ocean temperatures are warming, however above average SST anomaly seasons do not always result in a more active Atlantic Hurricane season.  I have found evidence that during a neutral ENSO phase is when the Atlantic Hurricane season is more active.  This also is not conclusive, not every neutral phase results in a more active season either.  Again, the wind shear, ACE, and PNO also have a factor in the intensity/activity of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 

Thanks for reading!

 

 ENSO analysis for Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005, 2020, 2021, and 2024.

Tracking charts for 2005, 2020, 2021, and 2024.

Tropical Storm Debby

 Potential for Tropical Storm Debby to impact Hampton Roads 

  The first potential tropical storm to impact our area is brewing off the Florida coast.  It is expected to develop into a Hurricane before landfall, however once it reaches land it will be likely downgraded to a tropical storm.  The weather models are still in a bit of disagreement with how long it may linger at the Florida/Georgia border, however what we know now is that it will bring flooding rainfall.

  The risk associated with the Tropical Storm slowing down at the border will include storm surge as it makes landfall, and tropical rainfall amounts are astronomical when measured by weather models.  The amount of moisture and the storm spinning over an area for a longer period of time results in rainfall amounts equal to the area's entire years' worth of rain.  There will be strong winds as well, but the water and flooding potential will be the biggest threat.

  As far as impacting the Hampton Roads area, it is still a bit early to tell exactly what Tropical Storm Debby will do, however I can at least give information off the knowledge we have now.  Depending on how long it takes the storm to move up the coast, it may reach the North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia coastline by Friday into Saturday.  Since this area has already had above normal precipitation accumulation this season, the biggest risk associated with any tropical system moving into the area is flooding.

 The Hampton Roads area is at a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the later part of the week, Wednesday/Thursday and into Friday.  This may be elevated once Tropical Storm Debby moves up the coast.  Even if the storm is remnants by the time it arrives, it will still drop tropical amounts of rain in the area.

 To prepare now for tropical storms affecting the region, have a plan in place for the need to evacuate if necessary, inventory your emergency kits now, and prepare for power outages with high temperatures.  Do not drive through flooded roadways or around barriers.  Monitor your local weather forecasts these coming days, as the forecast could shift and alter plans if needed.

  Below are latest images of weather models, Hurricane center imagery, ensemble means forecasts and resources.

  I will continue to monitor the storm throughout the week and post an update if necessary.  Thanks for reading!

 

Ensemble mean forecast ECMWF.  Each line represents a model scenario of the storm track.  The more lines in one spot, the more agreeance the ensemble has on location.  Do not use this image as a final determination of storm track, there is potential for adjustments.

Tropical Storm Debby at 26.3°N - 84.2°W - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page (noaa.gov)

Tropical Tidbits

National Hurricane Center (noaa.gov)

Build A Kit | Ready.gov

Tropical Page (weather.gov)

Know Your Zone | VDEM (vaemergency.gov)

The Heat is On!

 Continued excessive heat for Northeast into July

  It certainly is a scorcher out there!  Be sure to monitor your water intake if you have to be out in the heat and use cooling centers should you have no access to A/C!  Check on your family members that you know have health ailments and may be exposed to the heat.

  I was looking over the Climate Prediction Center drought monitoring outlook and excessive heat.  We get a little bit of relief on Monday night into Tuesday, where hopefully there is a slightly higher chance of rain/thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, the high temps do remain in the 90s for the week.

 This afternoon/evening there is an isolated chance of rain, but it will likely remain dry.  There is a risk for rapid onset drought due to little ground moisture, the high temperatures, little to no rain fallen in the Hampton Roads area, and high rates of the ground moisture being evaporated due to the high temperatures.  In other words, keep watering those plants and your lawn!

  For late June/early July there is a set up for more excessive heat risk and the onset drought.  Please continue to limit your exposure to the heat and look out for others!

  I have been monitoring the Hurricane Center updates as well, and other than Alberto come and gone impacting Texas, some minor disturbance by Florida that will drop tropical amounts of rain will be occurring.  For long term coast monitoring, there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that will move west toward the U.S., but it will have to continue to be watched if it ends up developing.

  Please see images and links below for more reading up on the upcoming heat, and any hurricane monitoring.

Probabilistic Hazards Outlook (noaa.gov)

Tropical Tidbits

Climate Prediction Center (noaa.gov)

  Thanks for reading!

Memorial Day Storms!

 Severe Weather Memorial Day Hampton Roads

 Hello everyone!  I know I haven't posted much, the plains have been lighting up with tornadoes and all types of severe weather, so I have mostly been keeping tabs on that.  Wishing best recovery efforts for those affected.

  I am watching the severe weather threat move through Missouri tonight, and it will then make its way east to our area, bringing the potential for severe weather on Memorial Day.  The main threat is high wind gusts and hail.  While there will be some pop-up storms that move through the area tonight like it has today, tomorrow is looking to be more widespread.

  The Storm Prediction Center has a slight chance for severe weather for the entirety of the east coast, mostly in the afternoon.  The 18z run of the HRRR (convective allowing model) shows a batch of rain/storms moving through around 9am, then another around 2pm and the final batch at 8pm.  While these times are not exact, and the models may shift and change the outcome, it is important to keep your eyes on the skies during any festivities tomorrow.  It will very easily go from blue skies, to towering cumulus and thunder.  When you hear thunder, don't take the risk.  Lightning is close enough to pose a risk if you can hear thunder, and strikes are sometimes miles away from storms.

This threat includes a 15% chance for high wind and hail, and a 5% chance of a tornado.  This means that there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 25 miles from any point within this shaded area.  The Virginia Beach tornado last year occurred on a 5% risk day, so while these numbers seem small, it actually covers a large area, and the risk is still there.

Winds on the water won't be that great either, and when these move through it will pick up out of the south and shift, so don't be caught out on the water tomorrow!  This news doesn't have to completely shut down any plans, but just stay aware as the day progresses. Have a great Memorial Day!  Stay tuned for more weather updates.  Thanks for reading!

 Useful links:

COD: Forecast Models

Storm Prediction Center May 26, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)

Temperature Analysis and Dubai

 Temperature Analysis for Hampton Roads and a little bit about the rain in Dubai

  Decided to do a little temperature analysis for the Hampton Roads area so far this spring season.  I really love these historical data sets the weather stations have available, as it shows the normal range temperature, the record highs and lows, and the observed temps.  This is a great analysis tool to see where we are this season in terms of normal.

  Temperatures are an important element to look over, because the warmer it is, the more instability the atmosphere holds.  This isn’t a tell-tale sign of how the summer will go, however it gives a pretty good idea that what we’ve experienced so far this season is not normal.  There were 51 days total in the observed period from March 1 to today, April 21.  32 of those days had highs above average, and one even broke the record, reaching 90 degrees April 15th.  The remaining 19 days high temperatures were within average.  The average temperature range varies as the interactive chart is used (link below), but it is 50 to 70 degrees for April 15th for example. The low temperature on that day was within the average range, but it was 63 degrees in the morning, which is quite warm before the sun even rises.  The most interesting fact is there have been 0 days of high temperatures below normal, and the staggering number of days with highs above normal.  Yes, it is getting warmer.

  The weather in the Mid-Atlantic region is difficult to forecast.  The systems move from west to east, and they have to cross over the Western-Virginia mountains on their way.  Further east (Hampton Roads), there are peninsulas.  (As if all the bridges we commute over didn’t tell us that!)  The peninsulas make the storms and weather systems have to travel over bodies of water, and the water temperature is different than the land temperature, especially this time of year.  Storms that may seem strong starting off in the west may weaken as they move over the mountain range and meet the change in temperature over the water.

  All of this makes it that much more interesting to continue to study all of the factors that play into what the atmosphere decides to do.  We will continue to monitor as the season progresses and see if the temperatures now are giving us a sign of what’s to come for the summer.

 

  Changing the topic a bit, a coworker asked about all the rain Dubai and the UAE was getting and if there was anything on why that may have occurred.  This is a desert region, so it definitely is not normal for the area to get a year’s worth of rain in two days.  Unfortunately, this caused flooding and destruction where it isn’t built for that much rain.  Since Dubai is a built-up city, it is at risk for urban flooding.

  I also found it interesting (and learned) that the country has been cloud seeding (modifying the weather) for years.  The first few articles I pulled up stated experts said the heavy amounts of rain were not a result of the cloud seeding.  The process is this:  When a convective cloud is already in the area, a small amount of water producing products are “injected” into the cloud.  This is an immediate result in larger amounts of rain that the area needs, but not a torrential downpour leading to flooding.  From what I learned so far, moisture in the atmosphere has to go somewhere.  Whether it is being placed into the cloud or not, the water molecules are so small I wouldn’t doubt it does have long term affects overall on the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.  Perhaps the cloud seeding has resulted in the area having the ability to produce more moisture in the clouds, and not just when the cloud seeding is occurring.  The teleconnections for the area could also influence the weather, but I am not as familiar with how the sea surface temperatures and other climate processes interact there, so I will be doing a bit more research for that.

Thanks for reading, more to come!  Here are some links from the research:

 Climate (weather.gov)

Atmosphere | Free Full-Text | The UAE Cloud Seeding Program: A Statistical and Physical Evaluation (mdpi.com)

Safety Concerns and Consequences of Cloud Seeding Implications—A Systematic Review | SpringerLink

Earthquake in NJ - Let's talk about it !

 Earthquake in NJ April 5th, 2024

  While several news reports and scientists are covering this phenomenon, I wanted to take a bit of time for research myself and learn more about this event.  I am originally from NJ, and visit there often, but I missed this!

  My family in South Jersey several miles away from the epicenter felt the quake, and it was an interesting experience for sure.  Thankfully no injuries have been reported.  This earthquake occurred at an ancient fault called the Ramapo Fault.  It is a very complicated system of fault lines with two or three other fault lines essentially running off the main Ramapo fault, similar to what a water tributary system looks like.

  This main earthquake that occurred yesterday was only 2 miles deep, making the waves from the epicenter easier to travel to the surface.  The aftershocks that have occurred are deeper (5 miles, 6 miles), and only felt in the vicinity.

  Earthquakes do occur here, just not very often.  It is considered an inactive fault, however, has the potential to activate at any time.  I see some news articles posting dramatic numbers, so just be wary of what you're reading.  And no, the upcoming Solar Eclipse has no impact on earthquakes and other geological processes.

  To get into the science a bit behind the earthquake, they occur when the Earth's crust slips, along a fault or tectonic plate (they are related, but not the same thing).  This could occur vertically or horizontally or fold up over each other, which creates mountains and volcanoes.  There are mountains in this region of the East Coast, so it makes sense there were historical geological processes that occurred.  This particular slip yesterday was an oblique reverse and strike slip.  The oblique reverse describes the vertical and horizontal movement along a fault line, and the portion of rock that lies above the fault plane moved upward.  The strike slip refers to horizontal movement of the crust past one another.  So, this earthquake involved a lot of moving parts (pun intended).

  To get a better picture of what the Earth's crust did at the fault line, imagine an Oreo cookie.  You split the top portion of the cookie in half to create the fault.  Then slide the left or right side of the cookie into the other side (using the cream as a surface), one side of the cookie will go over top the other.  Then move the cracked part of the cookie in a vertical motion up and down.   This is a demonstration of what happened that caused the earthquake.  Next there were waves that traveled upward from the fault line to the surface. You can demonstrate these waves with a slinky, holding one end and moving it vertically or horizontally while the other end is on the ground.  You will see a wave-like motion in the slinky.

  There have been several aftershocks since the main quake yesterday, and the USGS expects more throughout the week.  The ancient fault lines are in a readjustment phase, causing the aftershocks. This is very interesting to read about and research geological processes, I plan on continuing to look more into whatever further research results from this event.  

  As far as weather, the big event upcoming Monday is the Solar eclipse.  There are several cloud forecasts being released but honestly, I do not want to focus on something that is so unpredictable.  During no other weather event are meteorologists looking at the cloud forecast, because it is so difficult to forecast and get correct.  I also enjoy astronomy, and I know that cloud forecasts occur, then it ends up clearing in time to have a nice view of a celestial event.  I have my solar eclipse viewing glasses ready.  Virginia is not going to be in the path of totality, but it will still be a neat sight at the percent we will get.  Hopefully it remains clear, but if it doesn't, I say try anyway because I have seen people get images of an eclipse through clouds.

  Stay safe everyone, thanks for reading!  Here are some helpful links to stay on top of the earthquakes and where I looked for my research.

Latest Earthquakes (usgs.gov)

M 4.8 - 2024 Whitehouse Station, New Jersey Earthquake (usgs.gov)

Attitude, movement history, and structure of cataclastic rocks of the Flemington Fault results of core drilling near Oldwick, New Jersey (usgs.gov)