Severe Weather Memorial Day Hampton Roads
Hello everyone! I know I haven't posted much, the plains have been lighting up with tornadoes and all types of severe weather, so I have mostly been keeping tabs on that. Wishing best recovery efforts for those affected.
I am watching the severe weather threat move through Missouri tonight, and it will then make its way east to our area, bringing the potential for severe weather on Memorial Day. The main threat is high wind gusts and hail. While there will be some pop-up storms that move through the area tonight like it has today, tomorrow is looking to be more widespread.
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight chance for severe weather for the entirety of the east coast, mostly in the afternoon. The 18z run of the HRRR (convective allowing model) shows a batch of rain/storms moving through around 9am, then another around 2pm and the final batch at 8pm. While these times are not exact, and the models may shift and change the outcome, it is important to keep your eyes on the skies during any festivities tomorrow. It will very easily go from blue skies, to towering cumulus and thunder. When you hear thunder, don't take the risk. Lightning is close enough to pose a risk if you can hear thunder, and strikes are sometimes miles away from storms.
This threat includes a 15% chance for high wind and hail, and a 5% chance of a tornado. This means that there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 25 miles from any point within this shaded area. The Virginia Beach tornado last year occurred on a 5% risk day, so while these numbers seem small, it actually covers a large area, and the risk is still there.
Winds on the water won't be that great either, and when these move through it will pick up out of the south and shift, so don't be caught out on the water tomorrow! This news doesn't have to completely shut down any plans, but just stay aware as the day progresses. Have a great Memorial Day! Stay tuned for more weather updates. Thanks for reading!
Useful links:
Storm Prediction Center May 26, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)
