Welcome to Meteorological Spring!
Why do meteorologists and weather nerds get so excited for this day? Because it means the more interesting weather is on its way, warmer temperatures and spring is in the air!
This generally is the start of the storm chase season, so expect to see more reports of incoming storms or severe weather for this upcoming season.
I wanted to take some time to go over my analysis for the winter, I believe it is important to always look back on past forecasts, and see what was wrong, what was right and learn how to forecast better overall.
My forecast included higher than average December temperatures for the East Coast and Virginia, and it turns out that was accurate, also applying to the entire United States. Below is a graphic from the National Centers for Environmental Information that backs this up, and the link for those who would like to read in more detail. December 2023 National Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)
I also discussed at least one Nor'easter impacting the area, and that also held true however, it didn't result in snow for Hampton Roads. There was a trace amount of snow recorded in the winter season, which is below average. The graphic below from NWS Wakefield Office does a great job of detailing what happened this winter:
As the El Nino pattern persisted through the winter, we did have an above average season of precipitation, mostly being rain. Looking over the larger weather connections and climate patterns are a big part of having an accurate forecast, and it's my favorite part of forecasting.
We are projected to begin a Neutral/La Nina pattern shift coming up here shortly, which means the jet stream will start drifting farther north and support severe weather in the southeast. I will be looking into summer season analysis as well as Hurricanes when we get a little further into Spring.
For the Hampton Roads area tonight, expect rain through the night and some showers tomorrow with high temperatures in the 60s. Partly cloudy the rest of the week with highs in the 50s and a higher chance for rain on Wednesday. It's a pretty tell-tale sign when the temperature rises even just a few degrees, there will be rain.
Stay tuned! I'm glad I can share my weather forecasts and hopefully it helps everyone be a little more aware of what they're stepping outside to!
Thanks for reading
